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Граждане предпочитают сбережения покупкам

Граждане предпочитают сбережения покупкам

В январе ЦБ зафиксировал «нетипично скромный» отток средств населения из банков. Обычно в первый месяц года граждане активно тратят сбережения, в итоге объем средств физлиц в банках сокращается на 1,3-2%; в январе 2017 года — вдвое меньше. При этом ставки продолжают снижаться. Граждане опасаются тратить деньги, не видя перспектив роста доходов, отмечают эксперты.

Вчера Банк России опубликовал данные о динамике развития банковского сектора в январе 2017 года. Нетипичную динамику регулятор зафиксировал по вкладам населения (к ним относятся и средства до востребования). Так, за январь их объем сократился на 0,8% (или 0,6% без учета валютной переоценки), до 24 трлн руб. Обычно сокращение куда более значительное — в первом месяце года граждане активно тратят полученные в декабре бонусы, в том числе из-за длинных новогодних каникул. В январе 2016 года объем средств населения сократился на 1,8%, в январе 2014-го — на 1,6%, в 2013 году снижение составило 1,3%, в 2012-м — 2%. Исключением был лишь 2015 год, когда после повышения ключевой ставки ЦБ банки тоже резко подняли ставки — и в итоге нарастили объем вкладов за месяц на 4,2%. Тогда среднее арифметическое максимальных ставок по вкладам десяти крупнейших банков выросло на 5 п. п. и держалось выше уровня 15% годовых весь январь.

В этом году ситуация обратная — банки снижали ставки. На 1 января 2017 года среднее арифметическое максимальных ставок по вкладам крупнейших банков составляло 8,4%, за месяц этот показатель снизился до 8,17% и продолжил падение в феврале, опустившись по итогам первой декады февраля до 8,06%.

Такого низкого уровня ЦБ не фиксировал более пяти лет — с сентября 2011 года. «С учетом совокупности рисков российской экономики нынешние ставки нельзя назвать хорошим вознаграждением за сбережения в рублях»,— отмечает главный экономист компании «ПФ Капитал» Евгений Надоршин.

«На рынке нет платежеспособного спроса на деньги, а соответственно, и роста кредитования, а значит, банкам нет необходимости повышать ставки для привлечения вкладов»,— продолжает господин Надоршин.

Банкиры связывают нетипично скромный январский отток вкладов с неуверенностью граждан в будущем. По словам зампреда правления Райффайзенбанка Андрея Степаненко, не наблюдая улучшения экономической ситуации и затрудняясь прогнозировать будущее, люди стараются экономить и размещают свободные денежные средства на депозитах. Консервативное отношение к финансовым инструментам останавливает людей от вложения средств в более доходные, но и более рискованные продукты, указывает член правления Газпромбанка Валерий Серегин. «В условиях нестабильной экономической ситуации люди выбирают вклады как наиболее простой и надежный способ размещения денег: если с банком что-то случится, АСВ гарантирует возврат суммы до 1,4 млн руб.»,— поясняет он.

Стабилизация российской экономики, о которой власти говорят с осени прошлого года, пока не влияет на реальный уровень доходов населения. «Наша экономика все-таки стабилизировалась,— заявлял президент России Владимир Путин 4 сентября 2016 года.— Снижена инфляция в два раза, дефицит бюджета — 2,6%». Впрочем, в январе текущего года вице-премьер Ольга Голодец обращала внимание на то, что доход 5 млн граждан России находится на уровне ниже прожиточного минимума. «Первостепенная задача — восстановление доходов населения и потребления»,— отмечала она. Пока этого не произошло, люди стараются лишний раз не тратить деньги, указывают эксперты. «Люди максимально урезали расходы на покупки, несмотря на традиционные январские скидки,— говорит Евгений Надоршин.— Можно говорить даже о том, что люди экономили не только на сколько-нибудь крупных покупках, но и на праздничном столе». О том, что люди вынуждены экономить не только на одежде и развлечениях, но и на продуктах питания, «Ъ» сообщал 31 января. По данным Росстата, реальные доходы населения сократились в 2016 году на 5,9%.

 
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