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Провокация гонки вооружений

Провокация гонки вооружений

Расходы Китая на оборону в 2017 году будут увеличены приблизительно на семь процентов. Об этом на пресс-конференции накануне открытия пятой сессии Всекитайского собрания народных представителей заявила официальный представитель высшего законодательного органа КНР Фу Ин.

Эксперты, занимающиеся китайско-американскими отношениями, обращают внимание, что наряду с Китаем военный бюджет существенно (на 10%) наращивают и США. В абсолютных цифрах запрошенная сумма американского военного бюджета на следующий год определена в пределах $603 млрд, что на $54 млрд больше, чем потолок военных расходов, определенный Бараком Обамой в $549 млрд. 

Это значительно больше, чем выделяет на оборонные нужды Китай. Его военный бюджет занимает второе место в мире после американского: в прошлом году он составил $146 млрд. Объявленное семипроцентное увеличение не приведет к резкому изменению соотношений военных бюджетов и ВВП Америки и Китая. В КНР этот показатель составит 1,3%, в то время как у США достигает 3,6%.

Приведут ли взаимные повышения военных бюджетов КНР  и США  к гонке вооружений между ними по принципу «действие рождает противодействие»? Как реагировать России, если обе великие державы, имеющие противоположные взгляды на военно-политические развитие в мире и в АТР в частности, действительно увеличат свои военные ассигнования?

Очевидно, что Москва не будет осуждать Пекин за наращивание военных расходов. Возможное решение КНР по этому вопросу — сугубо внутреннее дело ее военно-политического руководства. В условиях продолжающейся напряженности между Пекином и Вашингтоном, которая активно стимулировалась бывшей американской администрацией и ныне всецело подхвачена президентом Дональдом Трампом, китайская сторона имеет полное право заботиться об укреплении обороноспособности страны.

Пекин не может не учитывать нынешнюю и перспективную военно-стратегическую обстановку в азиатско-тихоокеанской зоне. Он не может не обращать внимания, что подавляющая часть американского ракетно-ядерного и противоракетного потенциала сосредоточена именно в зоне Тихого океана, где расположены КНР и Соединенные Штаты.

Китайская сторона, вероятно, учитывает и солидную часть военных расходов Пентагона, которую новая республиканская администрация во главе с Дональдом Трампом собирается выделить на дальнейшее развитие и модернизацию стратегических наступательных ядерных вооружений и средств предупреждения о ракетном нападении. Новый хозяин Белого дома намерен продолжать программу полного обновления традиционной стратегической ядерной триады: МБР (межконтинентальные баллистические ракеты), ПЛАРБ (подводные лодки с баллистическими ракетами) и тяжелые стратегические бомбардировщики.

Китайское военно-политическое руководство одновременно не может игнорировать и продолжающееся развертывание американской системы ПРО в зоне АТР и в глобальном масштабе, ассигнования на которую останутся примерно в таком же объеме, как и при президенте Бараке Обаме: в целом в грядущее десятилетие они могут превысить $75–80 млрд. 

Хорошо известно, что в соответствии с действующими в Соединенных Штатах стратегическими ракетно-ядерными и противоракетными доктринами соответствующие американские потенциалы направлены против оборонных интересов как России, так и Китая.

Пекин уже проявил серьезное беспокойство по поводу выдвижения американской системы ПРО в направлении китайской территории, когда под предлогом противодействия «северокорейской ракетной угрозе» в Южной Корее в нынешнем году будет размещена система перехвата баллистических ракет второго эшелона, известная как THAAD, то есть система уничтожения летящих баллистических ракет на заключительной фазе их полета на большой высоте. В этой связи следует напомнить, что из всех разработанных в Соединенных Штатах противоракетных систем она самая эффективная: во время всех испытаний она показала стопроцентный успех перехвата таких ракет.

Россия с пониманием относится к возможному увеличению военных расходов КНР еще и по той причине, что Москва и Пекин не на словах, а на деле реальные стратегические партнеры в долгосрочной перспективе, что они сталкиваются с общими вызовами и угрозами планетарного измерения и регионального значения.

Другой особенностью отношения российской стороны к наращиванию военных расходов США и КНР является то, что Москва не намерена участвовать в гонке вооружений, которую перманентно пытаются навязать другим странам Соединенные Штаты. Она призывала и призывает их проявлять сдержанность в наращивании явно избыточных уровней вооружений и необоснованной военной деятельности вдали от американского континента.

Российское военно-политическое руководство неизменно исходит из принципа разумной достаточности при определении общенациональных расходов на оборонные нужды. В своей оборонной политике оно делает акцент на необходимости сохранения глобальной и региональной стабильности в интересах всех государств мира, а также из целесообразности поддержания всеобщей безопасности на основе принципа ее обеспечения во всех регионах мира, в том числе и в АТР.

 
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